Abstract
This study tests whether the Economic Outlook Index (FKB-EGE) published by the Financial Institutions Association (FKB) serves as a leading indicator for real economic activity in Türkiye using time series analysis methods. The FKB- EGE index, which is based on actual transaction data from factoring, financial leasing, and financing companies, differs from survey-based indicators in that it is constructed using data directly linked to real economic activity. In this study, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) was used as an indicator of real economic activity. The analysis includes a time series of 124 periods covering monthly data from February 2015, when the FKB-EGE was first calculated, to May 2025. The findings obtained from the Granger causality tests and forecasting regression models applied indicate that FKB-EGE, and particularly the Financial Leasing subindex, provide statistically significant and economically important information in forecasting the future trend of the IPI. The superior performance of the Financial Leasing Index in medium-term (3–6 months) forecasts aligns with theoretical expectations that leasing activities, which reflect investment decisions, serve as an important early warning signal for future production activity. These results suggest that the FKB-EGE could serve as a valuable realtime monitoring tool for policymakers and market analysts
Keywords
Leading Indicators; FKB Economic Outlook Index; Industrial Production Index; Time Series Analysis; Granger Causality
Topics
Granger causality / Granger nedensellik Composite indices / Bileşik endeksler Forecasting / Tahmin ve öngörü Leasing / Finansal kiralama Financial Institutions Association JEL C3 · Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables / Çoklu veya Eşanlı Denklem Modelleri • Çoklu Değişkenler JEL C5 · Econometric Modeling / Ekonometrik Modelleme JEL G2 · Financial Institutions and Services / Finansal Kurumlar ve Hizmetler Leading Indicators FKB Economic Outlook Index Industrial Production Index Time Series Analysis
JEL classification / JEL sınıflaması
- C32 Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models
Zaman Serisi Modelleri • Dinamik Kantil Regresyonlar • Dinamik Müdahale Etkisi Modelleri • Difüzyon Süreçleri • Durum Uzayı Modelleri - C53 Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods
Öngörü ve Tahmin Yöntemleri • Simülasyon Yöntemleri - G23 Non-bank Financial Institutions • Financial Instruments • Institutional Investors
Banka Dışı Finansal Kurumlar • Finansal Araçlar • Kurumsal Yatırımcılar
JEL codes: American Economic Association classification. Turkish descriptions are an unofficial translation. Türkçe açıklamalar gayriresmî çeviridir.
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- APA 7
Saldanlı, A., Sırma, İ., Bektaş, H., & Şeker, M. (2026). Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye. Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(1), 180–192. https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr1761744
- MLA 9
Saldanlı, A., et al. "Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye." Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 1, 2026, pp. 180–192. https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr1761744.
- Chicago 17 (author-date)
Saldanlı, A., İ. Sırma, H. Bektaş, and M. Şeker. 2026. "Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye." Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 13 (1): 180–192. https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr1761744.
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BibTeX
@article{saldanli2026financial,
title = {Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye},
author = {Saldanlı A. and Sırma İ. and Bektaş H. and Şeker M.},
year = {2026},
journal = {Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {180-192},
doi = {10.26650/jepr1761744}
}